Bull Rankings model

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) stock analysis

REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. · REIT - Mortgage
72.1REIT strength
$8.50Oct 13 close$4.7B
1Y Target$13.10Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$16.54Compound horizon
10Y Target$21.21Long-dated conviction
Yield11.6%
C+
Yield 11.6% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev-4.9%
D+
Revenue -4.9% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E3.88
D
D/E 3.88 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 72.1 / 100
Profitability57.3
Value (P/B)100.0
Income50.7

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $4.7b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $12.15 — deep drawdown territory. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $13.10 (implying +54% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
D/E 3.88 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 167% of earnings on a 11.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $13.10 (10-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $16.54 at ~14% CAGR — the dividend has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $21.21 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records RITM's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

RITM at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY57VALUE100COVERED INCOME5172.1/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$8.5LOW $8.4HIGH $12.2Trading near its 52-week low ($8.4–$12.2).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-20%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.7%
90-day change-0.5%
Forward EPS estimate$2.34

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect RITM to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
235
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$6.38
25% below $8.50
$ at risk if stopped
$499.38
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM): score, valuation & FAQ

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags Rev (D+) and D/E (D) as weaker areas.

Is RITM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades RITM on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. A score is a quantitative screen of Rithm Capital Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade RITM?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, RITM isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage and weakest on Rev (D+) and D/E (D).

Is RITM overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for RITM, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. RITM is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in RITM?

D/E 3.88 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 167% of earnings on a 11.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Mortgage REITs stocks by score

All Real Estate rankings →

Analyze another ticker →