Bull Rankings model

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) stock analysis

REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
75.7REIT strength
$11.69Oct 13 close$1.5B
1Y Target$14.64Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$18.49Compound horizon
10Y Target$23.71Long-dated conviction
Yield13.4%
C+
Yield 13.4% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+8.6%
B
Revenue +8.6% — at or above S&P median
D/E9.29
D
D/E 9.29 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 75.7 / 100
Profitability95.9
Value (P/B)94.4
Income40.0

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
17% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $1.5b. 17% off the 52-week high of $14.12. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $14.64 (implying +25% upside).
Moat
Net margin 52% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
D/E 9.29 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 97% of earnings on a 13.4% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $14.64 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $18.49 at ~10% CAGR — the dividend has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $23.71 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records EFC's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

EFC at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY96VALUE94COVERED INCOME4075.7/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$11.7LOW $11.3HIGH $14.1Trading near its 52-week low ($11.3–$14.1).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-14%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change+2.5%
Forward EPS estimate$1.98

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EFC to earn is drifting higher (+2.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
171
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$8.77
25% below $11.69
$ at risk if stopped
$499.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC): score, valuation & FAQ

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags D/E (D) as weaker areas.

Is EFC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades EFC on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. A score is a quantitative screen of Ellington Financial Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade EFC?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, EFC isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage and weakest on D/E (D).

Is EFC overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for EFC, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. EFC is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in EFC?

D/E 9.29 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 97% of earnings on a 13.4% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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