Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ARR analysis

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
Yield16.8%C+
Rev
D/E7.91D
74.4REIT strength
$17.30$2.1B
1Y Target$18.38Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$23.20Compound horizon
10Y Target$29.75Long-dated conviction
Yield16.8%
C+
Yield 16.8% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev
Revenue growth data unavailable or not applicable — neutral default
D/E7.91
D
D/E 7.91 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 74.4 / 100
Profitability0.94
Value (P/B)0.92
Income0.40

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
10% off the 12-month high
Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $2.1b. 10% off the 52-week high of $19.31. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $18.38 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
Net margin 81% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
D/E 7.91 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 116% of earnings on a 16.8% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $18.38 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $23.20 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $29.75 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records ARR's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

Shares to buy
115
Position size
$1,990
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$12.98
25% below $17.30
$ at risk if stopped
$497.38
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): score, valuation & FAQ

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags D/E (D) as weaker areas.

Is ARR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades ARR on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. A score is a quantitative screen of ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade ARR?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, ARR isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage and weakest on D/E (D).

Is ARR overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for ARR — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in ARR?

D/E 7.91 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 116% of earnings on a 16.8% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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