Bull Rankings model

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) stock analysis

REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
78.6REIT strength
$13.55Oct 14, 1:08 PM ET$1.9B
1Y Target$18.38Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$23.20Compound horizon
10Y Target$29.75Long-dated conviction
Yield21.2%
C+
Yield 21.2% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev—
—
No revenue growth figure to show
D/E7.57
D
D/E 7.57 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 78.6 / 100
Profitability100.0
Value (P/B)99.0
Income40.0

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $1.9b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $19.31 — deep drawdown territory. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $18.38 (implying +36% upside).
Moat
Net margin 88% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 20% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
D/E 7.57 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 71% of earnings on a 21.2% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $18.38 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $23.20 at ~11% CAGR — the dividend has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $29.75 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records ARR's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

ARR at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY100VALUE99COVERED INCOME4078.6/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$13.6LOW $13.2HIGH $19.3Trading near its 52-week low ($13.2–$19.3).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-13%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.1%
90-day change-3.6%
Forward EPS estimate$2.90

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ARR to earn is drifting lower (-3.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
147
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$10.16
25% below $13.55
$ at risk if stopped
$497.96
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): score, valuation & FAQ

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags D/E (D) as weaker areas.

Is ARR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades ARR on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. A score is a quantitative screen of ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade ARR?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, ARR isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage and weakest on D/E (D).

Is ARR overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for ARR, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. ARR is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in ARR?

D/E 7.57 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 71% of earnings on a 21.2% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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