Bull Rankings model

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) stock analysis

REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
STWD
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
64.9REIT strength
$12.48Oct 13 close$4.7B
1Y Target$19.56Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$28.64Compound horizon
10Y Target$42.49Long-dated conviction
Yield15.1%
C+
Yield 15.1% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev-13.8%
D
Revenue -13.8% — meaningful contraction
D/E3.31
C
D/E 3.31 — more levered than most Real Estate peers (≈90th pctile)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 64.9 / 100
Profitability44.6
Value (P/B)99.5
Income40.0

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
35% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $4.7b. Down 35% from 52-week high of $19.06 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -14% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $19.56 (implying +57% upside).
Moat
Net margin 38% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma.
Risk
D/E 3.31 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Revenue contracting -14% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 35% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $19.56 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $28.64 at ~18% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $42.49 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

Not enough history yet — the model records STWD's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

STWD at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY45VALUE99COVERED INCOME4064.9/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$12.5LOW $12.3HIGH $19.1Trading near its 52-week low ($12.3–$19.1).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-32%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.8%
90-day change-1.6%
Forward EPS estimate$1.88

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect STWD to earn is drifting lower (-1.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
160
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$9.36
25% below $12.48
$ at risk if stopped
$499.20
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD): score, valuation & FAQ

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags Rev (D) as weaker areas.

Is STWD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades STWD on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. A score is a quantitative screen of Starwood Property Trust, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade STWD?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, STWD isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage and weakest on Rev (D).

Is STWD overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for STWD, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. STWD is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in STWD?

D/E 3.31 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Revenue contracting -14% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 35% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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