Oil & Gas Integrated. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company · Oil & Gas Integrated
55.3Score
$78.66Oct 9 close$7.5B
1Y Target$90.46Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$132.44Compound horizon
10Y Target$196.47Long-dated conviction
FCF$222mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $222m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+15.1%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +15.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.91C+
D/E 0.91 — above the Energy debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E11.0xB+
P/E 11.0 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.55C+
PEG 1.55 — modest premium; above fair value
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 55.3
Quality62.6
Growth50.0
Value54.1
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
19% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value106% aboveest. fair value ~$38
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 25% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~8% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC10.7% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $7.5b. 19% off the 52-week high of $97.06. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
Net margin 27% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $90.46 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $132.44 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $196.47 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
NFG vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
NFG
Book avg
Diff
Quality
63
83
-20
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
54
76
-22
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · NFG
Trend
-2.2 over 82 daily scores
From 57.5 (Jun 22) → 55.3 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
NFG at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-1.8%
90-day change
-4.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$7.47
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NFG to earn is drifting lower (-4.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · NFG
$
%
%
Shares to buy
25
Position size
$1,967
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$58.99
25% below $78.66
$ at risk if stopped
$491.63
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG): score, valuation & FAQ
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is an Oil & Gas Integrated company that scores 55.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). On valuation, NFG sits about 106% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 25% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is NFG a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores NFG 55.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of National Fuel Gas Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does NFG score 55.3 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 62.6 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. NFG earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so NFG is measured against Oil & Gas Integrated peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is NFG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $78.66, NFG sits about 106% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 25% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.0x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in NFG?
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.