Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NEM analysis

Newmont CorporationGold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Gold & Precious Metals
NEM
Newmont Corporation · Gold
FCF$9.7bB+
Rev+25.2%A-
D/E0.16B+
P/E14.8xB+
PEG2.78C
60.5Score
$117.26$123.6B
1Y Target$129.27Analyst consensus · 21 analysts
5Y Target$189.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$280.75Long-dated conviction
FCF$9.7bTTM
B+
FCF $9.7b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+25.2%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +25.2% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.16
B+
D/E 0.16 — below the Basic Materials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E14.8x
B+
P/E 14.8 — below the Basic Materials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.78
C
PEG 2.78 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.5
Quality0.90
Growth0.50
Value0.49
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cyclical growth
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value58% belowest. fair value ~$277
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-11% a year for the next decade — vs the ~12% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Gold · market cap $123.6b. 13% off the 52-week high of $134.88. Revenue growing +25% — in hypergrowth territory. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $129.27 (implying +10% upside).
Moat
Net margin 33% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 113% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $129.27 (21-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $189.26 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $280.75 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NEM vs the Top Picks average

PillarNEMBook avgDiff
Quality0.900.83+0.07
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.490.75-0.25

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.4 over 37 daily scores
From 60.9 (Jun 22) → 60.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
17
Position size
$1,993
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$87.95
25% below $117.26
$ at risk if stopped
$498.36
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Newmont Corporation (NEM): score, valuation & FAQ

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is a Gold company that scores 60.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-), FCF (B+) and D/E (B+). On valuation, NEM sits about 58% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is NEM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NEM 60.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A-), FCF (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Newmont Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NEM score 60.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NEM earns its highest marks on Rev (A-), FCF (B+) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NEM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $117.26, NEM sits about 58% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 14.8x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NEM?

Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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