Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NCLH analysis

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.Travel Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Airlines & Travel
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. · Travel Services
FCF-$1.2bF
Rev+6.2%C+
D/E6.21D
P/S0.8xB+
PEG0.97B+
57.8Score
$18.55$8.5B
1Y Target$21.00Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$36.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$65.64Long-dated conviction
FCF-$1.2bTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$1.2b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+6.2%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.2% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E6.21
D
D/E 6.21 — most levered decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
P/S0.8x
B+
P/S 0.8x — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.97
B+
PEG 0.97 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.8
Quality0.61
Growth0.50
Value0.64
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
32% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability18% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC29.3% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Travel Services · market cap $8.5b. Down 32% from 52-week high of $27.18 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.97 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $21.00 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 6.21 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$1.2b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $21.00 (25-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $36.73 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $65.64 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NCLH vs the Top Picks average

PillarNCLHBook avgDiff
Quality0.610.83-0.23
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.640.75-0.11

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+6.1 over 37 daily scores
From 51.7 (Jun 22) → 57.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
107
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$13.91
25% below $18.55
$ at risk if stopped
$496.21
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH): score, valuation & FAQ

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a Travel Services company that scores 57.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (B+) and PEG (B+), while D/E (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is NCLH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NCLH 57.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/S (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NCLH score 57.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NCLH earns its highest marks on P/S (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by D/E (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NCLH overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for NCLH — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in NCLH?

D/E 6.21 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$1.2b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Travel & Leisure stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →