Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MT analysis

ArcelorMittal S.A.Steel. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MT
ArcelorMittal S.A. · Steel
FCF$471mC
Rev-1.7%D+
D/E0.25B+
P/E31.6xC
PEG0.42A
35Score
$75.17$56.7B
1Y Target$74.03Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$108.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$160.79Long-dated conviction
FCF$471mTTM
C
FCF $471m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev-1.7%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -1.7% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.25
B+
D/E 0.25 — below the Basic Materials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E31.6x
C
P/E 31.6 — expensive vs Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.42
A
PEG 0.42 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 35
Quality0.46
Growth0.22
Value0.43
Why this score
  • Cut its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
0% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value728% aboveest. fair value ~$9
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability4% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC4.1% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Steel · market cap $56.7b. Trading near 52-week high of $75.35 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. PEG 0.42 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $74.03 (implying -2% upside).
Moat
$56.7b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 0% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Beta 1.75 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $74.03 (6-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $108.39 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $160.79 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MT vs the Top Picks average

PillarMTBook avgDiff
Quality0.460.84-0.38
Growth0.220.92-0.70
Value0.430.75-0.32

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-21.4 over 36 daily scores
From 56.4 (Jun 22) → 35.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
26
Position size
$1,955
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$56.38
25% below $75.17
$ at risk if stopped
$488.64
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT): score, valuation & FAQ

ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is a Steel company that scores 35 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and D/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, MT sits about 728% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is MT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MT 35 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of ArcelorMittal S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MT score 35 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MT earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and D/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $75.17, MT sits about 728% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 31.6x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MT?

Trading within 0% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Beta 1.75 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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