Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MSFT analysis

Microsoft CorporationSoftware - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AIQuantum ComputingCloud & SaaS
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$67.0bA
Rev+17.8%B+
D/E0.29B
P/E27.0xB
PEG1.57C+
70.6Score
$483.24$3.6T
1Y Target$569.56Analyst consensus · 53 analysts
5Y Target$833.89Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,237Long-dated conviction
FCF$67.0bTTM
A
FCF $67.0b — top-tier cash generation, rarefied air
Rev+17.8%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.29
B
D/E 0.29 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E27.0x
B
P/E 27.0 — near the Technology median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.57
C+
PEG 1.57 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 70.6
Quality87.1
Growth90.9
Value44.4
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value175% aboveest. fair value ~$176
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~39% a year for the next decade — vs the ~20% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability30% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC25.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Microsoft’s AI‑infused cloud and productivity stack—anchored by Azure and Microsoft 365 Copilot—is delivering 17.8% YoY revenue growth, fueling a free‑cash‑flow generation of $67.0 billion and a 40.3% profit margin. Those metrics, combined with a 30.2% ROE, mean the business can keep compounding cash at a rapid clip, and the Bull Rankings model’s 76.7 quality‑growth score (Growth pillar 95) confirms the engine is still humming. The thesis rests on Azure’s continued capture of enterprise workloads and the expanding AI add‑on across the Microsoft 365 suite.
Moat
The Microsoft 365 and Azure ecosystems lock in enterprise customers through integrated licensing, data residency, and developer tooling that make switching prohibitively costly. This stickiness underpins the 30.2% ROE, driven by pricing power in the dominant cloud‑infrastructure and productivity‑software categories, which competitors cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
At a forward P/E of 25.1, the market is pricing in a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of ~38% per year—far above the 17.8% revenue growth the business is actually delivering, suggesting a valuation premium that could evaporate if growth stalls. A beta of 1.13 adds market‑risk sensitivity, and any slowdown in Azure adoption or AI uptake would trigger a re‑rating, breaking the bull case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $569.56 (53-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $833.89 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,237 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MSFT vs the Top Picks average

PillarMSFTBook avgDiff
Quality0.870.84+0.03
Growth0.910.84+0.07
Value0.440.78-0.34

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-7.6 over 47 daily scores
From 78.2 (Jun 22) → 70.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.1%
90-day change+2.3%
Forward EPS estimate$23.57

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MSFT to earn is drifting higher (+2.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,933
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$362.43
25% below $483.24
$ at risk if stopped
$483.24
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): score, valuation & FAQ

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 70.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A) and Rev (B+). On valuation, MSFT sits about 175% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 39% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MSFT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MSFT 70.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Microsoft Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MSFT score 70.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MSFT earns its highest marks on FCF (A) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MSFT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $483.24, MSFT sits about 175% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 39% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 27.0x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MSFT?

At a forward P/E of 25.1, the market is pricing in a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of ~38% per year—far above the 17.8% revenue growth the business is actually delivering, suggesting a valuation premium that could evaporate if growth stalls. A beta of 1.13 adds market‑risk sensitivity, and any slowdown in Azure adoption or AI uptake would trigger a re‑rating, breaking the bull case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Software stocks by score

All Technology rankings →

Analyze another ticker →