Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MAR analysis

Marriott International IncHotels, Restaurants & Leisure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MAR
Marriott International Inc · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
FCF$2.8bB
Rev+4.7%C+
D/E
P/E38.2xC
PEG8.13D
42.3Score
$372.83$98.3B
1Y Target$428.75Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$627.74Compound horizon
10Y Target$931.21Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.8bTTM · 03/26
B
FCF $2.8b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+4.7%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.7% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E38.2x
C
P/E 38.2 — rich valuation; execution risk material
PEG8.13proxy
D
PEG 8.13 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 42.3
Quality0.80
Growth0.50
Value0.19
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value151% aboveest. fair value ~$149
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~28% a year for the next decade — vs the ~5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure · market cap $98.3b. 9% off the 52-week high of $410.98.
Moat
ROE 309% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $98.3b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trailing P/E 38x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $428.75 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $627.74 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $931.21 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MAR vs the Top Picks average

PillarMARBook avgDiff
Quality0.800.82-0.02
Growth0.500.90-0.40
Value0.190.75-0.56

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.2 over 30 daily scores
From 38.3 (Jun 22) → 40.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
5
Position size
$1,864
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$279.62
25% below $372.83
$ at risk if stopped
$466.04
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Marriott International Inc (MAR): score, valuation & FAQ

Marriott International Inc (MAR) is a Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure company that scores 42.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags PEG (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, MAR sits about 151% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MAR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MAR 42.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Marriott International Inc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MAR score 42.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MAR grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MAR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $372.83, MAR sits about 151% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 38.2x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MAR?

Trailing P/E 38x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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