1Y Target$424.52Near-term target
5Y Target$594.52Compound horizon
10Y Target$873.91Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.8bTTM · 03/26BFCF $2.8b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+4.7%TTM YoYC+Revenue +4.7% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E——D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E37.7xCP/E 37.7 — rich valuation; execution risk material
PEG8.03proxyDPEG 8.03 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure · market cap $97.3b. Trading near 52-week high of $380.00 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety.
Moat
ROE 309% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $97.3b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 38x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $424.52 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $594.52 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $873.91 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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