Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

KSPI analysis

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kzSoftware - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

KSPI
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$1.5bC+
Rev+59.8%A
D/E0.22B
P/E9.0xA
PEG1.07B+
67.0Score
$105.55$20.1B
1Y Target$103.40Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$151.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$224.57Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.5bTTM · 03/26
C+
FCF $1.5b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+59.8%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +59.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.22
B
D/E 0.22 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E9.0x
A
P/E 9.0 — cheapest decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.07est.
B+
PEG 1.07 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0) · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 67
Quality84.8
Growth98.1
Value65.6
Why this score
  • Short track record
  • Foreign reporter (KZT)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
0% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value20% belowest. fair value ~$131
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability26% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Kaspi’s Payments platform in Kazakhstan and neighboring markets is the engine of a 59.8% YoY revenue surge, feeding a 41% ROE that outpaces peers and a rock‑bottom PE of 8.6, proving earnings are cheap relative to growth. The combination of a dominant consumer‑merchant payment network and a high‑margin fintech suite means revenue will keep compounding as more merchants adopt the integrated solution. The thesis rests on the durability of that network‑driven growth.
Moat
The Payments segment locks merchants and consumers into a single data‑rich ecosystem, creating switching costs and enabling Kaspi to monetize transaction data and cross‑sell fintech services. This entrenched flow drives the 41% ROE by extracting pricing power from its category‑leadership in Kazakhstan’s digital payments.
Risk
The Bull Rankings model’s reverse‑DCF implies a negative -2% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for the next decade, suggesting the market is already pricing in a sharp slowdown from the current 59.8% revenue growth. If the Payments platform stalls or competition erodes margins, the low PE becomes a red flag and the stock could retreat toward its 52‑week low of $68.59. A sustained deceleration in revenue or margin would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $103.40 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $151.38 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $224.57 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

KSPI vs the Top Picks average

PillarKSPIBook avgDiff
Quality0.850.84in line
Growth0.980.84+0.14
Value0.660.78-0.13

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.0 over 47 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 67.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$6803.44

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect KSPI to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,900
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$79.16
25% below $105.55
$ at risk if stopped
$474.97
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI): score, valuation & FAQ

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 67 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (B+). On valuation, KSPI sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is KSPI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores KSPI 67 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does KSPI score 67 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). KSPI earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is KSPI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $105.55, KSPI sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 9.0x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in KSPI?

The Bull Rankings model’s reverse‑DCF implies a negative -2% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for the next decade, suggesting the market is already pricing in a sharp slowdown from the current 59.8% revenue growth. If the Payments platform stalls or competition erodes margins, the low PE becomes a red flag and the stock could retreat toward its 52‑week low of $68.59. A sustained deceleration in revenue or margin would confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Software stocks by score

All Technology rankings →

Analyze another ticker →