Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

KGC analysis

Kinross Gold CorporationGold. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

KGC
Kinross Gold Corporation · Gold
FCF$2.6bB
Rev+36.9%A
D/E0.08A-
P/E9.8xA-
PEG1.12B+
68.8Score
$22.57$27.0B
1Y Target$36.01Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$52.71Compound horizon
10Y Target$78.20Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.6bTTM
B
FCF $2.6b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+36.9%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +36.9% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.08
A-
D/E 0.08 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E9.8x
A-
P/E 9.8 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.12
B+
PEG 1.12 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 68.8
Quality0.91
Growth0.50
Value0.72
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
42% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value15% belowest. fair value ~$27
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability30% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC27.5% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Gold · market cap $27.0b. Down 42% from 52-week high of $39.11 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +37% — in hypergrowth territory. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $36.01 (implying +60% upside).
Moat
Net margin 35% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 28% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 104% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 42% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.41 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $36.01 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $52.71 at ~18% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $78.20 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-0.9 over 22 daily scores
From 69.7 (Jun 22) → 68.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
88
Position size
$1,986
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$16.93
25% below $22.57
$ at risk if stopped
$496.54
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): score, valuation & FAQ

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) is a Gold company that scores 68.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). On valuation, KGC sits about 15% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is KGC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores KGC 68.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Kinross Gold Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does KGC score 68.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). KGC earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is KGC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $22.57, KGC sits about 15% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 9.8x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in KGC?

Down 42% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.41 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Basic Materials stocks by score

All Basic Materials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →