Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

HTHT analysis

H World Group LimitedLodging. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

HTHT
H World Group Limited · Lodging
FCF$1.1bC+
Rev+5.9%C+
D/E3.22C
P/E17.9xB+
PEG0.27A
60.7Score
$42.85$13.2B
1Y Target$59.01Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$74.50Compound horizon
10Y Target$95.54Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.1bTTM · 03/26
C+
FCF $1.1b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+5.9%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E3.22
C
D/E 3.22 — more levered than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E17.9x
B+
P/E 17.9 — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.27
A
PEG 0.27 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.7
Quality0.89
Growth0.50
Value0.91
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
24% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value37% belowest. fair value ~$68
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~16% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC28.9% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Lodging · market cap $13.2b. Down 24% from 52-week high of $56.64 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.27 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $59.01 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
Net margin 20% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 40% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 145% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 3.22 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 81% of earnings on a 5.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $59.01 (17-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $74.50 at ~12% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $95.54 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+1.4 over 29 daily scores
From 59.3 (Jun 22) → 60.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
46
Position size
$1,971
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$32.14
25% below $42.85
$ at risk if stopped
$492.78
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

H World Group Limited (HTHT): score, valuation & FAQ

H World Group Limited (HTHT) is a Lodging company that scores 60.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and P/E (B+). On valuation, HTHT sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is HTHT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HTHT 60.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of H World Group Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HTHT score 60.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HTHT earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is HTHT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $42.85, HTHT sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.9x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in HTHT?

D/E 3.22 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 81% of earnings on a 5.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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