FCF $2.0b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+8.7%TTM YoYB
Revenue +8.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E——
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E45.7xD
P/E 45.7 — most expensive decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.56C+
PEG 1.56 — modest premium; above fair value
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 47
Quality0.68
Growth0.50
Value0.31
Why this score
Buying back stock
Cyclical growth
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value87% aboveest. fair value ~$166
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~26% a year for the next decade — vs the ~16% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Lodging · market cap $70.0b. 13% off the 52-week high of $358.00. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $352.04 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. FCF converts 128% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $70.0b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trailing P/E 46x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. ROE -25% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $352.04 (24-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $515.42 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $764.60 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
HLT vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
HLT
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.68
0.83
-0.15
Growth
0.50
0.92
-0.42
Value
0.31
0.75
-0.44
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · HLT
Trend
+4.2 over 36 daily scores
From 42.8 (Jun 22) → 47.0 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · HLT
$
%
%
Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,866
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$233.25
25% below $311.00
$ at risk if stopped
$466.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT): score, valuation & FAQ
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is a Lodging company that scores 47 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
The model flags P/E (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, HLT sits about 87% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 26% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is HLT a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores HLT 47 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does HLT score 47 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HLT grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is HLT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $311.00, HLT sits about 87% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 26% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 45.7x× P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in HLT?
Trailing P/E 46x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. ROE -25% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.