Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

HBM analysis

Hudbay Minerals Inc.Copper. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

HBM
Hudbay Minerals Inc. · Copper
FCF$241mC
Rev+9.4%B
D/E0.20B+
P/E18.4xB+
PEG0.60A-
64.8Score
$30.06$13.4B
1Y Target$32.60Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$41.16Compound horizon
10Y Target$52.79Long-dated conviction
FCF$241mTTM
C
FCF $241m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+9.4%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.4% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.20
B+
D/E 0.20 — below the Basic Materials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E18.4x
B+
P/E 18.4 — below the Basic Materials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.60est.
A-
PEG 0.60 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 64.8
Quality76.1
Growth50.0
Value71.6
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
7% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value312% aboveest. fair value ~$7
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~57% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability12% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC17.1% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Copper · market cap $13.4b. 7% off the 52-week high of $32.15. PEG 0.60 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $32.60 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
Net margin 26% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Beta 2.27 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $32.60 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $41.16 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $52.79 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

HBM vs the Top Picks average

PillarHBMBook avgDiff
Quality0.760.84-0.08
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.720.78-0.07

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.9 over 47 daily scores
From 60.9 (Jun 22) → 64.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+7.8%
90-day change+11.9%
Forward EPS estimate$1.96

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect HBM to earn is materially higher (+11.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
66
Position size
$1,984
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$22.54
25% below $30.06
$ at risk if stopped
$495.99
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM): score, valuation & FAQ

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) is a Copper company that scores 64.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). On valuation, HBM sits about 312% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 57% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is HBM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HBM 64.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A-), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Hudbay Minerals Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HBM score 64.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HBM earns its highest marks on PEG (A-), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is HBM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $30.06, HBM sits about 312% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 57% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.4x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in HBM?

Beta 2.27 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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