1Y Target$11.75Near-term target
5Y Target$12.15Compound horizon
10Y Target$15.51Long-dated conviction
FCF$222mTTM · 03/26CFCF $222m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+16.5%TTM YoYB+Revenue +16.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.04AD/E 0.04 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet
P/E14.9xB+P/E 14.9 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG0.49APEG 0.49 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $2.5b. Down 43% from 52-week high of $16.05 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +17%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.49 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $11.75 (implying +29% upside).
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 43% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $11.75 (12-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $12.15 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $15.51 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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