Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FOUR analysis

Shift4 Payments, Inc.Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

FOUR
Shift4 Payments, Inc. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$433mC
Rev+32.4%A
D/E2.62D
P/E75.8xC
PEG0.40A
68.4Score
$48.53$3.8B
1Y Target$53.70Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$78.62Compound horizon
10Y Target$116.63Long-dated conviction
FCF$433mTTM
C
FCF $433m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+32.4%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +32.4% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E2.62
D
D/E 2.62 — most levered decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
P/E75.8x
C
P/E 75.8 — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.40
A
PEG 0.40 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 68.4
Quality54.6
Growth94.4
Value62.0
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
48% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value45% belowest. fair value ~$88
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~20% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability39% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.0% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Shift4’s SkyTab POS ecosystem is locking merchants into an omnichannel payments platform that is fueling a 32.4% revenue growth and generating $433 m of free cash flow while the market still values the business at a lofty PE of 49.8×. The combination of rapid merchant adoption, high‑margin processing fees and a buy‑back program creates a compounding engine that can sustain double‑digit earnings growth, making the stock a must‑have for growth‑focused portfolios.
Moat
The integrated SkyTab POS and SkyTab Mobile suite embeds payment processing, order‑at‑table and loyalty tools into a single hardware‑software stack, creating high switching costs for restaurants and retailers that rely on seamless omnichannel experiences. This lock‑in, coupled with support for every major card network and alternative wallets (Apple Pay, Alipay, WeChat Pay), gives Shift4 a defensible edge that competitors cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The stock trades at a premium PE of 49.8× and a debt‑to‑equity of 2.57, while the Bull Rankings reverse‑DCF shows the current price implying 0% free‑cash‑flow growth for the next decade—far below the 32.4% FY revenue expansion, suggesting the market has baked in unrealistic optimism. A slowdown in merchant acquisition or a rise in financing costs would force the valuation down toward its 52‑week low of $34.56, confirming the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $53.70 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $78.62 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $116.63 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

FOUR vs the Top Picks average

PillarFOURBook avgDiff
Quality0.550.84-0.29
Growth0.940.84+0.10
Value0.620.78-0.16

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.7 over 47 daily scores
From 74.1 (Jun 22) → 68.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-7.4%
90-day change-6.4%
Forward EPS estimate$6.25

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FOUR to earn is materially lower (-6.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
41
Position size
$1,990
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$36.40
25% below $48.53
$ at risk if stopped
$497.43
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR): score, valuation & FAQ

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 68.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and PEG (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, FOUR sits about 45% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FOUR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FOUR 68.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FOUR score 68.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FOUR earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and PEG (A), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FOUR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $48.53, FOUR sits about 45% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 75.8x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FOUR?

The stock trades at a premium PE of 49.8× and a debt‑to‑equity of 2.57, while the Bull Rankings reverse‑DCF shows the current price implying 0% free‑cash‑flow growth for the next decade—far below the 32.4% FY revenue expansion, suggesting the market has baked in unrealistic optimism. A slowdown in merchant acquisition or a rise in financing costs would force the valuation down toward its 52‑week low of $34.56, confirming the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Payments & Fintech Software stocks by score

All Technology rankings →

Analyze another ticker →