Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FCX analysis

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.Copper. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · Copper
FCF$1.8bC+
Rev+5.4%C+
D/E0.33B
P/E33.2xC
PEG6.81D
39.7Score
$65.00$93.4B
1Y Target$71.11Analyst consensus · 22 analysts
5Y Target$104.11Compound horizon
10Y Target$154.44Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.8bTTM
C+
FCF $1.8b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+5.4%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.4% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.33
B
D/E 0.33 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E33.2x
C
P/E 33.2 — expensive vs Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG6.81
D
PEG 6.81 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 39.7
Quality0.79
Growth0.50
Value0.16
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
10% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value194% aboveest. fair value ~$22
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~45% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability12% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC20.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Copper · market cap $93.4b. 10% off the 52-week high of $72.28. 22 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $71.11 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $93.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $71.11 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $104.11 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $154.44 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-0.2 over 24 daily scores
From 39.9 (Jun 22) → 39.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
30
Position size
$1,950
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$48.75
25% below $65.00
$ at risk if stopped
$487.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): score, valuation & FAQ

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is a Copper company that scores 39.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags PEG (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, FCX sits about 194% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 45% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FCX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FCX 39.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FCX score 39.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FCX grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FCX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $65.00, FCX sits about 194% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 45% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 33.2x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FCX?

Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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