D/E 0.46 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E24.4xB+
P/E 24.4 — below the Technology median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.37B
PEG 1.37 — acceptable premium for growth
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 60.7
Quality54.2
Growth85.8
Value48.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value26% aboveest. fair value ~$66
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~18% a year for the next decade — vs the ~19% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability42% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-1.4% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Elastic's AI‑enhanced Elasticsearch platform is cementing its role as the default search and vector‑database engine for enterprises, driving a 17.3% YoY revenue surge while delivering a 21.1% profit margin and generating $322m of free cash flow. The Bull Rankings model flags Growth as the strongest pillar (86), meaning the business compounds at a rate that outpaces most software peers, and the current price already assumes an 18% FCF growth rate—just above the actual revenue pace—leaving upside if the AI‑search wave accelerates. The thesis rests on sustained demand for Elastic’s unified data‑ingestion, search and analytics stack.
Moat
Elastic’s moat lies in its tightly integrated Elasticsearch‑Kibana stack, which locks in large‑scale enterprises that embed the engine across hybrid and multi‑cloud environments; switching would require re‑architecting billions of indexed documents. The 28.8% ROE reflects pricing power from category leadership in searchable AI data, allowing the firm to command premium contracts while maintaining low incremental cost.
Risk
The bear case centers on the lofty 24.4 P/E multiple, which presumes the 18% FCF growth implied by our reverse‑DCF is sustainable; any slowdown in AI‑search adoption or a pricing war with cloud giants could compress margins and push the valuation down. A rise in debt‑to‑equity to above 0.5 or a miss on the 17.3% revenue growth would trigger a sell‑off, confirming the downside thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $84.41 (27-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $123.58 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $183.32 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
ESTC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ESTC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.54
0.83
-0.29
Growth
0.86
0.87
in line
Value
0.48
0.76
-0.28
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · ESTC
Trend
-2.4 over 51 daily scores
From 63.1 (Jun 22) → 60.7 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
ESTC at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
+1.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$3.88
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ESTC to earn is drifting higher (+1.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · ESTC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,926
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$62.80
25% below $83.74
$ at risk if stopped
$481.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Elastic N.V. (ESTC): score, valuation & FAQ
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is a Software - Application company that scores 60.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). On valuation, ESTC sits about 26% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 18% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is ESTC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ESTC 60.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Elastic N.V.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ESTC score 60.7 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 85.8 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 48.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ESTC earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ESTC is measured against Software - Application peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ESTC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $83.74, ESTC sits about 26% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 18% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 24.4x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ESTC?
The bear case centers on the lofty 24.4 P/E multiple, which presumes the 18% FCF growth implied by our reverse‑DCF is sustainable; any slowdown in AI‑search adoption or a pricing war with cloud giants could compress margins and push the valuation down. A rise in debt‑to‑equity to above 0.5 or a miss on the 17.3% revenue growth would trigger a sell‑off, confirming the downside thesis.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.