Bull Rankings model

Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock analysis

Oil & Gas Integrated. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
EQNR
Equinor ASA · Oil & Gas Integrated
52.4Score
$43.01Oct 9 close$101.9B
1Y Target$38.83Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$49.02Compound horizon
10Y Target$62.87Long-dated conviction
FCF$9.6bTTM · 06/26
B+
FCF $9.6b — strong cash profile, above most peers · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+3.2%FY YoY
C+
Revenue +3.2% — steady but below market-beating range · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.75
C+
D/E 0.75 — above the Energy debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E11.8x
B+
P/E 11.8 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.12
B+
PEG 1.12 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 52.4
Quality79.9
Growth50.0
Value36.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
  • Cut its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value27% belowest. fair value ~$59
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~3% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $101.9b. 6% off the 52-week high of $45.84. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $38.83 (implying -10% upside).
Moat
ROE 21% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 106% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $101.9b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $38.83 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $49.02 at ~3% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $62.87 if the moat survives secular pressure.

EQNR vs the Top Picks average

PillarEQNRBook avgDiff
Quality8083-3
Growth5089-39
Value3676-40

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-6.1 over 82 daily scores
From 58.5 (Jun 22) → 52.4 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

EQNR at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD52.4/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY79.9GROWTH50.0VALUE36.1Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$58.7–$59.6FAIR-VALUE RANGE$43PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$59.3 · price $43 is 27% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+85%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$43LOW $22.3HIGH $45.8Trading near its 52-week high ($22.3–$45.8).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+22.6%
90-day change+28.7%
Forward EPS estimate$4.76

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EQNR to earn is materially higher (+28.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
46
Position size
$1,978
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$32.26
25% below $43.01
$ at risk if stopped
$494.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Equinor ASA (EQNR): score, valuation & FAQ

Equinor ASA (EQNR) is an Oil & Gas Integrated company that scores 52.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, EQNR sits about 27% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is EQNR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EQNR 52.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Equinor ASA's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EQNR score 52.4 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 79.9 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 36.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. EQNR earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so EQNR is measured against Oil & Gas Integrated peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is EQNR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $43.01, EQNR sits about 27% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.8x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EQNR?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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