Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CWT analysis

California Water Service Group — Utilities - Regulated Water. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Water
★
CWT
California Water Service Group · Utilities - Regulated Water
FCF-$236mF
Rev+3.9%C+
D/E0.93A-
P/S3.1xC+
PEG2.22C
54.3Score
$49.55$3.1B
1Y Target$55.33Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$96.78Compound horizon
10Y Target$172.96Long-dated conviction
FCF-$236mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$236m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+3.9%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.93
A-
D/E 0.93 — less debt than most Utilities peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S3.1x
C+
P/S 3.1x — above the Utilities median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.22
C
PEG 2.22 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.3
Quality45.9
Growth63.6
Value54.7
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
8% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
ROIC4.2% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
CWT’s growth engine is anchored in its regulated water delivery to 500,000 connections across California and expanding markets like Hawaii and Texas, where rate‑case approvals reliably lift earnings. The business is already delivering 13.3% profit margin and a solid 7.4% ROE while expanding revenue at 3.9% YoY, a pace that our model flags as the strongest pillar (Growth 64). With a modest beta of 0.49 and a P/E of 22.2, the upside hinges on continued rate‑case wins that compound earnings over the next decade.
Moat
The franchise’s moat lies in its exclusive, municipally‑granted water rights and the high switching cost for residential, industrial and irrigation customers who depend on a continuous, treated water supply. Management controls the full value chain—from production to distribution—across 20 districts, limiting competitors to costly new infrastructure and regulatory hurdles, which sustains the 13.3% margin and protects cash flows.
Risk
The bear case centers on the quality shortfall (Quality 46) and the negative free cash flow of -$236 m, indicating that capital‑intensive upgrades are eroding cash generation and could force higher debt, already at a 0.93 D/E ratio. A slip in rate‑case approvals would compress margins and push the P/E above the sector norm, confirming the downside if the dividend raise fails to offset dilution.
Horizon
1-3 yr $55.33 (3-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $96.78 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $172.96 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CWT vs the Top Picks average

PillarCWTBook avgDiff
Quality0.460.84-0.38
Growth0.640.84-0.20
Value0.550.78-0.24

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Score history · CWT
Trend
-5.1 over 46 daily scores
From 59.4 (Jun 22) → 54.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.4%
90-day change-0.4%
Forward EPS estimate$2.75

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CWT to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Position sizing · CWT
Shares to buy
40
Position size
$1,982
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$37.16
25% below $49.55
$ at risk if stopped
$495.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest CWT developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

California Water Service Group (CWT): score, valuation & FAQ

California Water Service Group (CWT) is a Utilities - Regulated Water company that scores 54.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is CWT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CWT 54.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of California Water Service Group's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CWT score 54.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CWT earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CWT overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for CWT — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in CWT?

The bear case centers on the quality shortfall (Quality 46) and the negative free cash flow of -$236 m, indicating that capital‑intensive upgrades are eroding cash generation and could force higher debt, already at a 0.93 D/E ratio. A slip in rate‑case approvals would compress margins and push the P/E above the sector norm, confirming the downside if the dividend raise fails to offset dilution.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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