New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR) stock analysis
Utilities - Regulated Gas. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
NJR
New Jersey Resources Corporation · Utilities - Regulated Gas
65.0Score
$51.21Oct 9 close$5.2B
1Y Target$59.86Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$75.57Compound horizon
10Y Target$96.91Long-dated conviction
FCF$359mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $359m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+7.0%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +7.0% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.47B
D/E 1.47 — near the Utilities debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E14.2xA-
P/E 14.2 — cheaper than most Utilities peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG2.14C
PEG 2.14 — expensive relative to growth rate
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 65
Quality76.4
Growth56.1
Value64.2
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value9% belowest. fair value ~$56
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 3% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~7% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability-4% · Fgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC13.2% · B+return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Utilities - Regulated Gas · market cap $5.2b. 16% off the 52-week high of $60.86. 7 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $59.86 (implying +17% upside).
Moat
Net margin 24% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 98% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $59.86 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $75.57 at ~8% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $96.91 if the moat survives secular pressure.
NJR vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
NJR
Book avg
Diff
Quality
76
83
-7
Growth
56
89
-33
Value
64
76
-12
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · NJR
Trend
-3.4 over 82 daily scores
From 68.4 (Jun 22) → 65.0 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
NJR at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-0.3%
90-day change
-0.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$3.45
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NJR to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · NJR
$
%
%
Shares to buy
39
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$38.41
25% below $51.21
$ at risk if stopped
$499.30
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR): score, valuation & FAQ
New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR) is a Utilities - Regulated Gas company that scores 65 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-). On valuation, NJR sits about 9% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 3% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.
Is NJR a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores NJR 65 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of New Jersey Resources Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does NJR score 65 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 76.4 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 56.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. NJR earns its highest marks on P/E (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so NJR is measured against Utilities - Regulated Gas peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is NJR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $51.21, NJR sits about 9% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 3% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 14.2x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in NJR?
Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.