California Resources Corporation (CRC) stock analysis
Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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CRC
California Resources Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
40.3Score
$52.96Oct 9 close$4.7B
1Y Target$76.50Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$133.80Compound horizon
10Y Target$239.12Long-dated conviction
FCF$876mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $876m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+15.1%FY YoYB+
Revenue +15.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.40B+
D/E 0.40 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S*1.3xA-
P/S 1.3x — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.45A
PEG 0.45 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 40.3
Quality44.8
Growth50.0
Value29.2
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
26% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value66% belowest. fair value ~$155
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 20% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~7% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $4.7b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $71.98 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.45 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $76.50 (implying +44% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -3.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -4% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $76.50 (12-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $133.80 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $239.12 — return distribution heavily skewed.
CRC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
CRC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
45
83
-38
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
29
76
-47
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · CRC
Trend
-18.6 over 82 daily scores
From 58.9 (Jun 22) → 40.3 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
CRC at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-10.0%
90-day change
-14.5%
Forward EPS estimate
$3.85
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CRC to earn is materially lower (-14.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · CRC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
37
Position size
$1,960
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$39.72
25% below $52.96
$ at risk if stopped
$489.88
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
California Resources Corporation (CRC): score, valuation & FAQ
California Resources Corporation (CRC) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 40.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), P/S (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, CRC sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 20% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is CRC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores CRC 40.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A), P/S (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of California Resources Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does CRC score 40.3 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 50.0 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 29.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CRC earns its highest marks on PEG (A), P/S (A-) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CRC is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is CRC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $52.96, CRC sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 20% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in CRC?
Currently unprofitable (margin -3.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -4% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.