COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
CNR vs HCC
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. CNR scored 49.4, HCC scored 33.8 — CNR leads.
Compare another set
CNR
Core Natural Resources, Inc.
49.4
$80.68 · $4.1B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
15.6
CNR leads
HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
33.8
$80.36 · $4.2B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
CNR
stronger →← stronger
HCC
43
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
44
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
55
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
18
CNR is stronger on 1 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
CNR
HCC
$242mC
FCF
-$189mF
+60.6%A
Rev
+11.1%B
0.12A
D/E
0.11A-
1.0xA-
P/S
2.9xB
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
CNR
HCC
28% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
—
~6%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
—
+6%
1-yr DCF upside
—
+40%
5-yr DCF upside
—
+109%
10-yr DCF upside
—
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
CNR
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Cut its dividend
- Cyclical growth
- Short track record
HCC
Why this score
- Cyclical growth
The companies
CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.
Why now
Thermal Coal · market cap $4.1b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $114.80 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +61% — in hypergrowth territory. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $105.25 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.5%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
Why now
Coking Coal · market cap $4.2b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $110.39 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $103.00 (implying +28% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$189m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
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