Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CCL analysis

Carnival Corporation Ltd.Travel Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Airlines & Travel
CCL
Carnival Corporation Ltd. · Travel Services
FCF$3.2bB
Rev+5.2%C+
D/E2.02C+
P/E12.5xA-
PEG1.00B+
54.4Score
$27.75$38.0B
1Y Target$35.55Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$44.88Compound horizon
10Y Target$57.56Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.2bTTM
B
FCF $3.2b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+5.2%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.2% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E2.02
C+
D/E 2.02 — above the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E12.5x
A-
P/E 12.5 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.00
B+
PEG 1.00 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.4
Quality0.57
Growth0.50
Value0.57
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cut its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value2% aboveest. fair value ~$27
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~12% a year for the next decade — vs the ~18% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability22% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC9.3% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Travel Services · market cap $38.0b. 18% off the 52-week high of $34.03. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $35.55 (implying +28% upside).
Moat
ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 104% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 2.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 2.34 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $35.55 (25-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $44.88 at ~10% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $57.56 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CCL vs the Top Picks average

PillarCCLBook avgDiff
Quality0.570.83-0.27
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.570.75-0.18

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.9 over 37 daily scores
From 52.5 (Jun 22) → 54.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
72
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$20.81
25% below $27.75
$ at risk if stopped
$499.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL): score, valuation & FAQ

Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) is a Travel Services company that scores 54.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, CCL sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CCL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CCL 54.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CCL score 54.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CCL earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CCL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $27.75, CCL sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 12.5x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CCL?

D/E 2.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 2.34 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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