Bull Rankings model

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) stock analysis

REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
58.7REIT strength
$10.74Oct 13 close$1.8B
1Y Target$17.43Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$25.52Compound horizon
10Y Target$37.85Long-dated conviction
Yield17.0%
C+
Yield 17.0% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+12.1%
B+
Revenue +12.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E4.85
D
D/E 4.85 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 58.7 / 100
Profitability18.7
Value (P/B)100.0
Income40.0

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
48% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $1.8b. Down 48% from 52-week high of $20.67 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $17.43 (implying +62% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
D/E 4.85 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 2350% of earnings on a 17.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $17.43 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $25.52 at ~19% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $37.85 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

Not enough history yet — the model records BXMT's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

BXMT at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY19VALUE100COVERED INCOME4058.7/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$10.7LOW $10.6HIGH $20.7Trading near its 52-week low ($10.6–$20.7).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-40%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-6.1%
90-day change-25.2%
Forward EPS estimate$1.45

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BXMT to earn is materially lower (-25.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
186
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$8.05
25% below $10.74
$ at risk if stopped
$499.41
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT): score, valuation & FAQ

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker.

Is BXMT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades BXMT on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade BXMT?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, BXMT isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (B+) and weakest on D/E (D).

Is BXMT overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for BXMT, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. BXMT is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in BXMT?

D/E 4.85 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 2350% of earnings on a 17.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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