Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BXMT analysis

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
Yield13.0%C+
Rev+12.1%B+
D/E4.85D
58.0REIT strength
$14.27$2.4B
1Y Target$18.86Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$27.61Compound horizon
10Y Target$40.96Long-dated conviction
Yield13.0%
C+
Yield 13.0% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+12.1%
B+
Revenue +12.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E4.85
D
D/E 4.85 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 58 / 100
Profitability18.7
Value (P/B)98.2
Income40.0

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
31% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $2.4b. Down 31% from 52-week high of $20.67 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $18.86 (implying +32% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
D/E 4.85 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 2350% of earnings on a 13.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $18.86 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $27.61 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $40.96 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records BXMT's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-20.4%
90-day change-21.4%
Forward EPS estimate$1.55

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BXMT to earn is materially lower (-21.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
140
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$10.70
25% below $14.27
$ at risk if stopped
$499.45
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT): score, valuation & FAQ

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker.

Is BXMT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades BXMT on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade BXMT?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, BXMT isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (B+) and weakest on D/E (D).

Is BXMT overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for BXMT — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in BXMT?

D/E 4.85 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 2350% of earnings on a 13.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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