Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BABA analysis

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedInternet Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

E-commerce
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited · Internet Retail
FCF-$7.6bF
Rev+2.7%C
D/E0.24A-
P/S1.8xC+
PEG0.50A
39.4Score
$118.47$284.0B
1Y Target$188.37Analyst consensus · 39 analysts
5Y Target$329.46Compound horizon
10Y Target$588.81Long-dated conviction
FCF-$7.6bTTM · 03/26
F
FCF is negative (-$7.6b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+2.7%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.7% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E0.24
A-
D/E 0.24 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S1.8x
C+
P/S 1.8x — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.50
A
PEG 0.50 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 39.4
Quality44.3
Growth37.9
Value66.0
Why this score
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
39% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC3.7% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Internet Retail · market cap $284.0b. Down 39% from 52-week high of $192.67 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.50 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 39 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $188.37 (implying +59% upside).
Moat
$284.0b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$7.6b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 39% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. E-commerce competition — Amazon, Walmart, Shein, and Temu have each forced the rest of the category to compete on price, fulfillment speed, or assortment; sustaining margins requires one of those being structurally defended.
Horizon
1-3 yr $188.37 (39-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $329.46 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $588.81 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BABA vs the Top Picks average

PillarBABABook avgDiff
Quality0.440.84-0.39
Growth0.380.87-0.49
Value0.660.76-0.10

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-8.2 over 48 daily scores
From 47.6 (Jun 22) → 39.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.7%
90-day change+1.3%
Forward EPS estimate$9.35

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BABA to earn is drifting higher (+1.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
16
Position size
$1,896
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$88.85
25% below $118.47
$ at risk if stopped
$473.88
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA): score, valuation & FAQ

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is a Internet Retail company that scores 39.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and D/E (A-), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is BABA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BABA 39.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Alibaba Group Holding Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BABA score 39.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BABA earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BABA overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for BABA — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in BABA?

Free cash flow is negative (-$7.6b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 39% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. E-commerce competition — Amazon, Walmart, Shein, and Temu have each forced the rest of the category to compete on price, fulfillment speed, or assortment; sustaining margins requires one of those being structurally defended.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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