Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AXON analysis

Axon Enterprise, Inc.Aerospace & Defense. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
FCF$20mC-
Rev+34.0%A
D/E0.52B+
P/S13.3xD
PEG4.04D
39.5Score
$491.49$39.6B
1Y Target$660.88Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$1,156Compound horizon
10Y Target$2,931Long-dated conviction
FCF$20mTTM
C-
FCF $20m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+34.0%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +34.0% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.52
B+
D/E 0.52 — below the Industrials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S13.3x
D
P/S 13.3x — most expensive decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
PEG4.04
D
PEG 4.04 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 39.5
Quality0.32
Growth1.00
Value0.19
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
45% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value11202% aboveest. fair value ~$4
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability25% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-0.4% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $39.6b. Down 45% from 52-week high of $885.92 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +34% — in hypergrowth territory. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $660.88 (implying +34% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Down 45% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. P/S 13.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $660.88 (19-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $1,156 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $2,931 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-11.6 over 25 daily scores
From 51.1 (Jun 22) → 39.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,966
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$368.62
25% below $491.49
$ at risk if stopped
$491.49
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON): score, valuation & FAQ

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) is a Aerospace & Defense company that scores 39.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and D/E (B+), while P/S (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, AXON sits about 11202% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is AXON a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AXON 39.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AXON score 39.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AXON earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and D/E (B+), and is held back by P/S (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AXON overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $491.49, AXON sits about 11202% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AXON?

Down 45% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. P/S 13.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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