Aerospace & Defense. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated · Aerospace & Defense
74.9Score
$1,107.99Oct 9 close$61.2B
1Y Target$1,448Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$2,120Compound horizon
10Y Target$3,145Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.9bTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $1.9b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+16.6%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +16.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/ENegative equity—
Shareholders' equity is below zero, usually after years of share buybacks, so debt-to-equity has no meaning here. When the company earns an operating profit, the score measures its debt as net debt against that profit instead.
P/E33.6xC+
P/E 33.6 — above the Industrials median (≈75th pctile)
PEG3.05D
PEG 3.05 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 74.9
Quality82.0
Growth82.9
Value61.8
Why this score
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
24% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value54% aboveest. fair value ~$721
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 22% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~17% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability22% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC37.4% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedWritten from the fundamentals then; figures in the text are as of that day, today's are above · Editorial standards
Why now
TransDigm’s moat lies in its Power & Control segment, which supplies mission‑critical actuators, ignition systems and specialized pumps to OEMs that face high switching costs. The business is scaling on 16.6% revenue growth, a 21.3% profit margin and $1.9 B of free cash flow, all while trading at a forward‑PE of 33—still below the sector’s growth premium. The thesis rests on the durability of these aftermarket components and the compounding cash flow they generate.
Moat
The company’s engineered actuators and control systems are embedded in commercial and military aircraft, creating a lock‑in effect because airlines and defense programs rarely redesign airframes. This high switching cost, combined with a deep OEM relationships portfolio, lets TransDigm command pricing power and sustain cash conversion despite modest competition.
Risk
The negative ROE of -21.7% signals that earnings are volatile and heavily impacted by acquisition accounting, while a PE of 33 suggests the stock is priced for continued high growth. A slowdown in aerospace spend or a misstep in integrating new acquisitions could push margins lower, confirming the bear case if free cash flow falls below $1 B.
Horizon
1-3 yr $1,448 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $2,120 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $3,145 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
TDG vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
TDG
Book avg
Diff
Quality
82
83
in line
Growth
83
89
-6
Value
62
76
-14
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · TDG
Trend
+23.8 over 80 daily scores
From 51.1 (Jun 22) → 74.9 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
TDG at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.1%
90-day change
+3.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$48.43
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TDG to earn is drifting higher (+3.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · TDG
$
%
%
Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,108
2.2% of portfolio
Stop price
$830.99
25% below $1,108
$ at risk if stopped
$277.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG): score, valuation & FAQ
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) is an Aerospace & Defense company that scores 74.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, TDG sits about 54% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 22% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is TDG a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TDG 74.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of TransDigm Group Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TDG score 74.9 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 82.9 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 61.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TDG earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TDG is measured against Aerospace & Defense peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is TDG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $1107.99, TDG sits about 54% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 22% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 33.6x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in TDG?
The negative ROE of -21.7% signals that earnings are volatile and heavily impacted by acquisition accounting, while a PE of 33 suggests the stock is priced for continued high growth. A slowdown in aerospace spend or a misstep in integrating new acquisitions could push margins lower, confirming the bear case if free cash flow falls below $1 B.