D/E 0.52 — below the Industrials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E15.4xA-
P/E 15.4 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.11B+
PEG 1.11 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 70.5
Quality64.5
Growth75.1
Value72.3
Why this score
Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
19% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value5% belowest. fair value ~$86
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~12% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability26% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Textron is compounding its way to higher ground on the back of Bell’s tiltrotor and military helicopter franchises, where demand from U.S. and allied defense budgets is locked in for the next decade. Revenue grew 8.8% in the last fiscal year while free cash flow hit $759M — a 5.3% FCF margin that funds buybacks and still leaves room for R&D into next-gen platforms. The Bull Rankings model gives Growth a 75/100, the highest pillar, and the crux is simple: defense primes aren’t just beneficiaries of geopolitical tension, they’re the beneficiaries of multi-year procurement cycles that Textron’s Bell and Textron Systems segments dominate with platforms like the V-22 Osprey and Aerosonde UAS.
Moat
Textron’s moat is built on the switching costs and regulatory hurdles of fielding new rotorcraft and unmanned systems. The Bell segment’s tiltrotor IP is protected by decades of flight-test data, FAA certifications, and the sunk costs of pilot training and maintenance infrastructure that lock in military and commercial operators. Textron Systems’ UAS franchise benefits from DoD’s preference for off-the-shelf solutions with proven reliability, creating a de facto standard that competitors can’t replicate without years of certification. Our model’s Quality score of 65/100 reflects solid ROE of 11.6%, driven by pricing power in defense subsegments where Textron holds category leadership.
Risk
The bear case is that Textron’s P/E of 15.6x is too rich for a business growing revenue at 8.8% when the reverse-DCF implies 7% FCF growth for 10 years. If defense budgets flatten or commercial aviation demand softens, the multiple could compress toward the 5-year low of 12x, wiping out upside. The model’s Value pillar at 72/100 flags that the stock is pricing in optimism, and the concrete signal that would break the bull thesis is a downward revision in FY27 guidance or a competitor securing a major tiltrotor or UAS contract that undercuts Bell’s market share.
Horizon
1-3 yr $102.07 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $149.44 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $221.68 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
TXT vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
TXT
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.64
0.83
-0.19
Growth
0.75
0.87
-0.12
Value
0.72
0.76
-0.04
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · TXT
Trend
+1.0 over 52 daily scores
From 69.5 (Jun 22) → 70.5 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
TXT at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.5%
90-day change
-0.5%
Forward EPS estimate
$7.26
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TXT to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · TXT
$
%
%
Shares to buy
24
Position size
$1,963
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$61.35
25% below $81.80
$ at risk if stopped
$490.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Textron Inc. (TXT): score, valuation & FAQ
Textron Inc. (TXT) is a Aerospace & Defense company that scores 70.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, TXT sits about 5% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is TXT a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TXT 70.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Textron Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TXT score 70.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 75.1 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 64.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TXT earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TXT is measured against Aerospace & Defense peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is TXT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $81.80, TXT sits about 5% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 15.4x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in TXT?
The bear case is that Textron’s P/E of 15.6x is too rich for a business growing revenue at 8.8% when the reverse-DCF implies 7% FCF growth for 10 years. If defense budgets flatten or commercial aviation demand softens, the multiple could compress toward the 5-year low of 12x, wiping out upside. The model’s Value pillar at 72/100 flags that the stock is pricing in optimism, and the concrete signal that would break the bull thesis is a downward revision in FY27 guidance or a competitor securing a major tiltrotor or UAS contract that undercuts Bell’s market share.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.