Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ATS analysis

ATS CorporationSpecialty Industrial Machinery. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ATS
ATS Corporation · Specialty Industrial Machinery
FCF$149mC
Rev-16.5%F
D/E0.78B
P/E56.4xD
PEG2.09C
27.4Score
$19.74$1.9B
1Y Target$22.70Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$33.24Compound horizon
10Y Target$49.30Long-dated conviction
FCF$149mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $149m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev-16.5%TTM YoY
F
Revenue -16.5% — severe decline
D/E0.78
B
D/E 0.78 — near the Industrials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E56.4x
D
P/E 56.4 — most expensive decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
PEG2.09est.
C
PEG 2.09 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 27.4
Quality35.4
Growth14.3
Value47.4
Why this score
  • Foreign reporter (CAD)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
45% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value34% belowest. fair value ~$30
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~4% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC0.2% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Specialty Industrial Machinery · market cap $1.9b. Down 45% from 52-week high of $35.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -16% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating.
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trailing P/E 56.4x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Revenue contracting -16% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.1%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $22.70 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $33.24 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $49.30 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ATS vs the Top Picks average

PillarATSBook avgDiff
Quality0.350.84-0.48
Growth0.140.84-0.70
Value0.470.78-0.31

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-27.4 over 47 daily scores
From 54.8 (Jun 22) → 27.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-14.3%
90-day change-16.2%
Forward EPS estimate$1.38

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ATS to earn is materially lower (-16.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
101
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$14.80
25% below $19.74
$ at risk if stopped
$498.43
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

ATS Corporation (ATS): score, valuation & FAQ

ATS Corporation (ATS) is a Specialty Industrial Machinery company that scores 27.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags P/E (D) and Rev (F) as weaker areas. On valuation, ATS sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ATS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ATS 27.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. A score is a quantitative screen of ATS Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ATS score 27.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ATS grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by P/E (D) and Rev (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ATS overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $19.74, ATS sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 56.4x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ATS?

Trailing P/E 56.4x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Revenue contracting -16% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.1%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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