Bull Rankings model

AutoNation, Inc. (AN) stock analysis

Auto & Truck Dealerships. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AN
AutoNation, Inc. · Auto & Truck Dealerships
53.1Score
$157.38Oct 9 close$5.2B
1Y Target$226.75Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$396.59Compound horizon
10Y Target$708.78Long-dated conviction
FCF-$104mTTM · 03/26
F
FCF is negative (-$104m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · Trailing twelve months to 03/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+3.2%FY YoY
C+
Revenue +3.2% — steady but below market-beating range · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E5.02
D
D/E 5.02 — most levered decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
P/S*0.2x
A
P/S 0.2x — cheapest decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.43
A
PEG 0.43 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 53.1
Quality72.3
Growth50.3
Value41.2
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
33% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Auto & Truck Dealerships · market cap $5.2b. Down 33% from 52-week high of $235.81 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.43 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $226.75 (implying +44% upside).
Moat
ROE 33% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 5.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$104m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $226.75 (12-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $396.59 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $708.78 — return distribution heavily skewed.

AN vs the Top Picks average

PillarANBook avgDiff
Quality7283-11
Growth5089-39
Value4176-35

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-6.9 over 82 daily scores
From 60.0 (Jun 22) → 53.1 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AN at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD53.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY72.3GROWTH50.3VALUE41.2
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$157LOW $153HIGH $236Trading near its 52-week low ($153–$236).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-26%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100AN 53.1Top 41% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-3.3%
90-day change-1.4%
Forward EPS estimate$23.96

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AN to earn is drifting lower (-1.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,889
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$118.03
25% below $157.38
$ at risk if stopped
$472.14
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

AutoNation, Inc. (AN): score, valuation & FAQ

AutoNation, Inc. (AN) is an Auto & Truck Dealerships company that scores 53.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A) and PEG (A), while D/E (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is AN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AN 53.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/S (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of AutoNation, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AN score 53.1 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 72.3 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 41.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AN earns its highest marks on P/S (A) and PEG (A), and is held back by D/E (D) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AN is measured against Auto & Truck Dealerships peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AN overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AN — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AN?

D/E 5.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$104m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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