1Y Target$38.44Near-term target
5Y Target$71.91Compound horizon
10Y Target$187.11Long-dated conviction
FCF$372mTTM · 03/26CFCF $372m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+14.7%TTM YoYB+Revenue +14.7% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E1.49C+D/E 1.49 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage
P/S1.9xA-P/S 1.9x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG1.22BPEG 1.22 — acceptable premium for growth
Why now
Auto & Truck Dealerships · market cap $3.8b. 7% off the 52-week high of $38.52. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $38.44 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Speculative name — the thesis depends on a specific catalyst playing out (commercialization, regulatory milestone, market expansion). Position size accordingly; a 50% drawdown should not change the thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $38.44 (9-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $71.91 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $187.11 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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