COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
AMR vs HCC
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. AMR scored 32.0, HCC scored 33.8 — HCC leads.
Compare another set
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
32
$142.80 · $1.8B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
1.8
HCC leads
HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
33.8
$80.36 · $4.2B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
AMR
stronger →← stronger
HCC
37
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
44
30
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
29
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
18
HCC is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
AMR
HCC
$22mC-
FCF
-$189mF
-19.1%F
Rev
+11.1%B
0.01A
D/E
0.11A-
0.9xA-
P/S
2.9xB
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
AMR
HCC
383% above
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
—
~38%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
—
-77%
1-yr DCF upside
—
-79%
5-yr DCF upside
—
-82%
10-yr DCF upside
—
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
AMR
Why this score
- Buying back stock
HCC
Why this score
- Cyclical growth
The companies
AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
Why now
Coking Coal · market cap $1.8b. Down 44% from 52-week high of $253.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -19% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 3 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $171.33 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Revenue contracting -19% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.8%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
Why now
Coking Coal · market cap $4.2b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $110.39 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $103.00 (implying +28% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$189m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
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