Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AMBP analysis

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.Packaging & Containers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. · Packaging & Containers
FCF$276mC
Rev+12.0%B+
D/E
P/E99.2xD
PEG8.27D
47.2Score
$4.96$3.0B
1Y Target$5.15Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$7.54Compound horizon
10Y Target$11.19Long-dated conviction
FCF$276mTTM
C
FCF $276m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+12.0%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E99.2x
D
P/E 99.2 — most expensive decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
PEG8.27proxy
D
PEG 8.27 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 47.2
Quality0.57
Growth0.77
Value0.24
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value63% belowest. fair value ~$13
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~12% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability12% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Packaging & Containers · market cap $3.0b. 9% off the 52-week high of $5.43. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $5.15 (implying +4% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trailing P/E 99.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Dividend payout 800% of earnings on a 7.7% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Net margin 0.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $5.15 (6-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $7.54 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $11.19 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-24.8 over 31 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 47.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
403
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$3.72
25% below $4.96
$ at risk if stopped
$499.72
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP): score, valuation & FAQ

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is a Packaging & Containers company that scores 47.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while P/E (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, AMBP sits about 63% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AMBP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AMBP 47.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AMBP score 47.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AMBP earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by P/E (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AMBP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $4.96, AMBP sits about 63% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 99.2x× P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AMBP?

Trailing P/E 99.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Dividend payout 800% of earnings on a 7.7% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Net margin 0.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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