Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. — Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. · Software - Application
FCF$169mC
Rev+7.6%B
D/E0.63C+
P/E21.6xB+
PEG1.41B
71Score
$52.09$2.6B
1Y Target$60.00Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$87.85Compound horizon
10Y Target$130.31Long-dated conviction
FCF$169mTTMC
FCF $169m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+7.6%TTM YoYB
Revenue +7.6% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.63C+
D/E 0.63 — above the Technology debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E21.6xB+
P/E 21.6 — below the Technology median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.41B
PEG 1.41 — acceptable premium for growth
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 71
Quality0.65
Growth0.78
Value0.71
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
12% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value22% belowest. fair value ~$67
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability42% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.0% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $2.6b. 12% off the 52-week high of $59.53. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $60.00 (implying +15% upside).
Moat
Net margin 12% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 15% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 133% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $60.00 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $87.85 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $130.31 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · ALRM
Trend
-0.1 over 14 daily scores
From 71.1 (Jun 22) → 71.0 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · ALRM
$
%
%
Shares to buy
38
Position size
$1,979
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$39.07
25% below $52.09
$ at risk if stopped
$494.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM): score, valuation & FAQ
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) is a Software - Application company that scores 71 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, ALRM sits about 22% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety).
Is ALRM a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ALRM 71 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ALRM score 71 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ALRM earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $52.09, ALRM sits about 22% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety). It trades at a 21.6x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ALRM?
Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.