Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AES analysis

The AES CorporationUtilities - Diversified. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AES
The AES Corporation · Utilities - Diversified
FCF-$1.7bF
Rev+8.5%B
D/E2.57D
P/S0.8xA
PEG0.81B+
55.4Score
$14.77$10.5B
1Y Target$15.00Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$26.24Compound horizon
10Y Target$46.89Long-dated conviction
FCF-$1.7bTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$1.7b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+8.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E2.57
D
D/E 2.57 — most levered decile in Utilities (≈95th pctile)
P/S0.8x
A
P/S 0.8x — cheapest decile in Utilities (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.81
B+
PEG 0.81 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 55.4
Quality59.4
Growth40.7
Value70.3
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability5% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Utilities - Diversified · market cap $10.5b. 16% off the 52-week high of $17.65. PEG 0.81 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $15.00 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 38% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 2.57 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$1.7b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $15.00 (8-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $26.24 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $46.89 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AES vs the Top Picks average

PillarAESBook avgDiff
Quality0.590.84-0.25
Growth0.410.84-0.43
Value0.700.78-0.08

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.2 over 47 daily scores
From 57.6 (Jun 22) → 55.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.1%
90-day change-0.5%
Forward EPS estimate$2.38

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AES to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
135
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$11.08
25% below $14.77
$ at risk if stopped
$498.49
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

The AES Corporation (AES): score, valuation & FAQ

The AES Corporation (AES) is a Utilities - Diversified company that scores 55.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A) and PEG (B+), while D/E (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is AES a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AES 55.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/S (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of The AES Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AES score 55.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AES earns its highest marks on P/S (A) and PEG (B+), and is held back by D/E (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AES overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AES — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AES?

D/E 2.57 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$1.7b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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