Bull Rankings model

The AES Corporation (AES) stock analysis

Utilities - Diversified. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AES
The AES Corporation · Utilities - Diversified
49.9Score
$14.94Oct 9 close$10.7B
1Y Target$15.00Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$26.24Compound horizon
10Y Target$46.89Long-dated conviction
FCF-$1.7bTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$1.7b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-0.4%FY YoY
D+
Revenue -0.4% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E2.57
C
D/E 2.57 — more levered than most Utilities peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S*0.8x
A
P/S 0.8x — cheapest decile in Utilities (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.81
B+
PEG 0.81 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 49.9
Quality65.4
Growth25.4
Value75.0
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
15% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Utilities - Diversified · market cap $10.7b. 15% off the 52-week high of $17.65. PEG 0.81 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $15.00 (implying +0% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent.
Risk
D/E 2.57 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$1.7b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $15.00 (8-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $26.24 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $46.89 — return distribution heavily skewed.

AES vs the Top Picks average

PillarAESBook avgDiff
Quality6583-18
Growth2589-64
Value7576in line

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-7.7 over 82 daily scores
From 57.6 (Jun 22) → 49.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AES at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD49.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY65.4GROWTH25.4VALUE75.0
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$14.9LOW $13.2HIGH $17.7Trading at the 39th percentile of its 52-week range ($13.2–$17.7).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100AES 49.9Top 48% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+6%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-0.4%
Forward EPS estimate$2.37

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AES to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
133
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$11.21
25% below $14.94
$ at risk if stopped
$496.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

The AES Corporation (AES): score, valuation & FAQ

The AES Corporation (AES) is a Utilities - Diversified company that scores 49.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A) and PEG (B+), while Rev (D+) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is AES a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AES 49.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/S (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of The AES Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AES score 49.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 75.0 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 25.4 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AES earns its highest marks on P/S (A) and PEG (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AES is measured against Utilities - Diversified peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AES overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AES — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AES?

D/E 2.57 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$1.7b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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