1Y Target$256.35Near-term target
5Y Target$283.30Compound horizon
10Y Target$416.44Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.5bTTM · 03/26BFCF $4.5b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+66.1%TTM YoYARevenue +66.1% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.01AD/E 0.01 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet
P/E16.6xB+P/E 16.6 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG28.15DPEG 28.15 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Why now
Gold · market cap $88.0b. Down 31% from 52-week high of $255.24 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +66% — in hypergrowth territory. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $256.35 (implying +46% upside).
Moat
Net margin 39% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 22% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $88.0b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $256.35 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $283.30 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $416.44 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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