Bull Rankings model

Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) stock analysis

Gold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AAUC
Allied Gold Corporation · Gold
55.8Score
$20.56Oct 9 close$2.9B
1Y Target$27.76Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$48.55Compound horizon
10Y Target$86.76Long-dated conviction
FCF$106mFY · 12/25
C
FCF $106m — modest; watch for margin expansion · From the fiscal year ended 12/25 in SEC filings (OCF − CapEx) — this company files no quarterly cash-flow series, so a trailing-twelve-month figure can't be assembled.
Rev+82.3%FY YoY
A
Revenue +82.3% — hypergrowth, top decile · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.31
B
D/E 0.31 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/S*2.2x
B
P/S 2.2x — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — not reported for this company

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

* PEG n/a — not reported for this company

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 55.8
Quality58.3
Growth50.0
Value59.6
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
36% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value0% aboveest. fair value ~$20
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 15% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~25% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability24% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC31.6% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Gold · market cap $2.9b. Down 36% from 52-week high of $32.20 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +82% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Down 36% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 0.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 1% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $27.76 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $48.55 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $86.76 — return distribution heavily skewed.

AAUC vs the Top Picks average

PillarAAUCBook avgDiff
Quality5883-25
Growth5089-39
Value6076-16

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+26.4 over 82 daily scores
From 29.4 (Jun 22) → 55.8 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AAUC at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD55.8/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY58.3GROWTH50.0VALUE59.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~15% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$15.7$30.5FAIR-VALUE RANGE$20.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$20.5 · price $20.6 is in line with it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$20.6LOW $14.6HIGH $32.2Trading at the 34th percentile of its 52-week range ($14.6–$32.2).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+11%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Shares to buy
97
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$15.42
25% below $20.56
$ at risk if stopped
$498.58
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC): score, valuation & FAQ

Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) is a Gold company that scores 55.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A). On valuation, AAUC sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 15% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is AAUC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AAUC 55.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Allied Gold Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AAUC score 55.8 on Bull Rankings?

It grades evenly across the three pillars — quality 58.3, growth 50.0, value 59.6 out of 100 — so no single pillar is carrying the score. AAUC earns its highest marks on Rev (A). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AAUC is measured against Gold peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AAUC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $20.56, AAUC sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 15% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AAUC?

Down 36% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 0.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 1% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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