Bull Rankings model

AAON, Inc. (AAON) stock analysis

Building Products & Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AAON
AAON, Inc. · Building Products & Equipment
67.7Score
$86.16Oct 9 close$7.1B
1Y Target$134.75Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$235.68Compound horizon
10Y Target$421.20Long-dated conviction
FCF-$9mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$9m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+53.5%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +53.5% — hypergrowth, top decile · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.45
B+
D/E 0.45 — below the Industrials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S*3.7x
C+
P/S 3.7x — above the Industrials median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.99
B+
PEG 0.99 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 67.7
Quality63.1
Growth97.2
Value50.5
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
43% off the 12-month high
Quality signals
Gross profitability27% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC16.7% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Building Products & Equipment · market cap $7.1b. Down 43% from 52-week high of $150.46 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +54% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.99 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $134.75 (implying +56% upside).
Moat
ROE 16% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$9m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 43% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.41 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $134.75 (4-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $235.68 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $421.20 — return distribution heavily skewed.

AAON vs the Top Picks average

PillarAAONBook avgDiff
Quality6383-20
Growth9789+8
Value5076-26

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+37.1 over 82 daily scores
From 30.6 (Jun 22) → 67.7 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AAON at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD67.7/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY63.1GROWTH97.2VALUE50.5
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100AAON 67.7Top 13% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$86.2LOW $73.2HIGH $150Trading at the 17th percentile of its 52-week range ($73.2–$150).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-14%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.8%
90-day change+6.3%
Forward EPS estimate$3.50

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AAON to earn is materially higher (+6.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,982
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$64.62
25% below $86.16
$ at risk if stopped
$495.42
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

AAON, Inc. (AAON): score, valuation & FAQ

AAON, Inc. (AAON) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 67.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is AAON a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AAON 67.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of AAON, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AAON score 67.7 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 97.2 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 50.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AAON earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AAON is measured against Building Products & Equipment peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AAON overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AAON — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AAON?

Free cash flow is negative (-$9m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 43% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.41 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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