Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

XP analysis

XP Inc.Capital Markets. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

XP
XP Inc. · Capital Markets
Rev+7.3%B
P/E8.6xA-
ROE22.6%A-
P/B1.76B
Yield1.2%C+
69.8Financial strength
$16.81$8.5B
1Y Target$21.98Analyst consensus · 9 analysts
5Y Target$27.75Compound horizon
10Y Target$35.58Long-dated conviction
Rev+7.3%
B
Revenue +7.3% — at or above S&P median
P/E8.6x
A-
P/E 8.6 — cheaper than most Financial Services peers (≈25th pctile)
ROE22.6%
A-
ROE 22.6% — Buffett's preferred bar (>20%)
P/B1.76
B
P/B 1.76 — fair; a premium the market pays for returns
Yield1.2%
C+
Yield 1.2% — small income component

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 69.8 / 100
Profitability92.6
Value (P/B)56.1
Income45.1

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
27% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Capital Markets · market cap $8.5b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $23.13 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.59 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $21.98 (implying +31% upside).
Moat
Net margin 29% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
D/E 6.42 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $21.98 (9-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $27.75 at ~11% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $35.58 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records XP's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.0%
90-day change-5.3%
Forward EPS estimate$2.32

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect XP to earn is materially lower (-5.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
118
Position size
$1,984
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$12.61
25% below $16.81
$ at risk if stopped
$495.89
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

XP Inc. (XP): score, valuation & FAQ

XP Inc. (XP) is a Capital Markets company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and ROE (A-).

Is XP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades XP on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by P/E (A-) and ROE (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of XP Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade XP?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, XP isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on P/E (A-) and ROE (A-).

Is XP overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for XP — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in XP?

D/E 6.42 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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