Bull Rankings model

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) stock analysis

Capital Markets. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
NMR
Nomura Holdings, Inc. · Capital Markets
68.9Financial strength
$9.59Oct 9 close$28.0B
1Y Target$10.36Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$13.08Compound horizon
10Y Target$16.77Long-dated conviction
Rev+10.8%
B
Revenue +10.8% — at or above S&P median
P/E11.2x
B+
P/E 11.2 — below the Financial Services median (≈40th pctile)
ROE11.2%
B
ROE 11.2% — acceptable capital return
P/B1.15
B+
P/B 1.15 — reasonable for a quality bank
Yield3.4%
B
Yield 3.4% — modest income

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 68.9 / 100
Profitability59.6
Value (P/B)78.9
Income73.7

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
12% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Capital Markets · market cap $28.0b. 12% off the 52-week high of $10.94. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.81 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
D/E 9.46 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $10.36 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $13.08 at ~6% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $16.77 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records NMR's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

NMR at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY60VALUE79COVERED INCOME7468.9/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+42%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$9.6LOW $6.7HIGH $10.9Trading at the 68th percentile of its 52-week range ($6.7–$10.9).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$0.56

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NMR to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
208
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$7.19
25% below $9.59
$ at risk if stopped
$498.68
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR): score, valuation & FAQ

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) is a Capital Markets company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+) and P/B (B+).

Is NMR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades NMR on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by P/E (B+) and P/B (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade NMR?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, NMR isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on P/E (B+) and P/B (B+).

Is NMR overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for NMR, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. NMR is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in NMR?

D/E 9.46 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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