Bull Rankings model

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) stock analysis

Capital Markets. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
JEF
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. · Capital Markets
68.2Financial strength
$44.86Oct 13 close$10.3B
1Y Target$55.67Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$70.28Compound horizon
10Y Target$90.13Long-dated conviction
Rev+2.9%
C
Revenue +2.9% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
P/E12.0x
B
P/E 12.0 — near the Financial Services median (≈60th pctile)
ROE8.6%
C+
ROE 8.6% — subdued returns on equity
P/B0.87
A-
P/B 0.87 — near book, cheap for a profitable franchise
Yield3.6%
B+
Yield 3.6% — healthy income

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 68.2 / 100
Profitability49.4
Value (P/B)90.0
Income76.1

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
33% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Capital Markets · market cap $10.3b. Down 33% from 52-week high of $66.60 — deep drawdown territory. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $55.67 (implying +24% upside).
Moat
Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
D/E 3.82 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.54 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $55.67 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $70.28 at ~9% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $90.13 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records JEF's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

JEF at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY49VALUE90COVERED INCOME7668.2/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-17%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$44.9LOW $35.5HIGH $66.6Trading at the 30th percentile of its 52-week range ($35.5–$66.6).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.3%
90-day change-0.4%
Forward EPS estimate$4.52

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect JEF to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
44
Position size
$1,974
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$33.64
25% below $44.86
$ at risk if stopped
$493.46
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF): score, valuation & FAQ

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) is a Capital Markets company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/B (A-) and Yield (B+).

Is JEF a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades JEF on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by P/B (A-) and Yield (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade JEF?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, JEF isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on P/B (A-) and Yield (B+).

Is JEF overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for JEF, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. JEF is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in JEF?

D/E 3.82 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.54 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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