Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

WM analysis

Waste Management, Inc.Waste Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

WM
Waste Management, Inc. · Waste Management
FCF$3.6bB
Rev+7.2%B
D/E2.35D
P/E59.2xC
PEG2.31C
53Score
$224.31$89.7B
1Y Target$260.64Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$381.60Compound horizon
10Y Target$566.08Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.6bTTM
B
FCF $3.6b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+7.2%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E2.35
D
D/E 2.35 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/E59.2x
C
P/E 59.2 — expensive vs Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG2.31
C
PEG 2.31 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 53
Quality0.80
Growth0.65
Value0.29
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
10% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value38% aboveest. fair value ~$162
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability23% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC32.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Waste Management · market cap $89.7b. 10% off the 52-week high of $248.13. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $260.64 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
ROE 29% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 125% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $89.7b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 2.35 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 59.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.
Horizon
1-3 yr $260.64 (25-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $381.60 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $566.08 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

WM vs the Top Picks average

PillarWMBook avgDiff
Quality0.800.84-0.04
Growth0.650.92-0.26
Value0.290.75-0.46

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-9.5 over 36 daily scores
From 62.5 (Jun 22) → 53.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,794
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$168.23
25% below $224.31
$ at risk if stopped
$448.62
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Waste Management, Inc. (WM): score, valuation & FAQ

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a Waste Management company that scores 53 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags D/E (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, WM sits about 38% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is WM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WM 53 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Waste Management, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WM score 53 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). WM grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is WM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $224.31, WM sits about 38% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 59.2x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in WM?

D/E 2.35 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 59.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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