Waste Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
WM
Waste Management, Inc. · Waste Management
60.5Score
$208.83Oct 9 close$83.5B
1Y Target$255.56Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$374.17Compound horizon
10Y Target$555.05Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.6bTTM · 06/26B
FCF $3.6b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+7.2%TTM YoYB
Revenue +7.2% — at or above S&P median · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E2.35D
D/E 2.35 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/E29.6xB
P/E 29.6 — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.92C+
PEG 1.92 — modest premium; above fair value
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 60.5
Quality80.4
Growth66.1
Value41.6
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value35% aboveest. fair value ~$154
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 15% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~11% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability23% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC32.4% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Waste Management · market cap $83.5b. 16% off the 52-week high of $248.13. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $255.56 (implying +22% upside).
Moat
ROE 29% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 125% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $83.5b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 2.35 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $255.56 (25-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $374.17 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $555.05 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
WM vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
WM
Book avg
Diff
Quality
80
83
-3
Growth
66
89
-23
Value
42
76
-34
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · WM
Trend
-2.0 over 82 daily scores
From 62.5 (Jun 22) → 60.5 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
WM at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-0.4%
90-day change
-1.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$9.08
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect WM to earn is drifting lower (-1.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · WM
$
%
%
Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,879
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$156.62
25% below $208.83
$ at risk if stopped
$469.87
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Waste Management, Inc. (WM): score, valuation & FAQ
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a Waste Management company that scores 60.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
The model flags D/E (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, WM sits about 35% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 15% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is WM a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores WM 60.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Waste Management, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does WM score 60.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 80.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 41.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. WM grades middle-of-pack across the graded signals, and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so WM is measured against Waste Management peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is WM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $208.83, WM sits about 35% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 15% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 29.6x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in WM?
D/E 2.35 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.