Waste Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
WCN
Waste Connections, Inc. · Waste Management
53.2Score
$152.83Oct 9 close$38.4B
1Y Target$198.08Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$290.01Compound horizon
10Y Target$430.21Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+5.7%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +5.7% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.22C
D/E 1.22 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E36.9xC
P/E 36.9 — expensive vs Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.51C+
PEG 1.51 — modest premium; above fair value
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 53.2
Quality63.4
Growth61.3
Value38.6
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
15% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value84% aboveest. fair value ~$83
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~10% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability19% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC8.8% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Waste Management · market cap $38.4b. 15% off the 52-week high of $179.74. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $198.08 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 116% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Trailing P/E 37x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $198.08 (25-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $290.01 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $430.21 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
WCN vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
WCN
Book avg
Diff
Quality
63
83
-20
Growth
61
89
-28
Value
39
76
-37
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · WCN
Trend
-7.1 over 80 daily scores
From 60.3 (Jun 22) → 53.2 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
WCN at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-0.1%
90-day change
+0.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$6.20
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect WCN to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · WCN
$
%
%
Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$114.62
25% below $152.83
$ at risk if stopped
$496.70
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN): score, valuation & FAQ
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) is a Waste Management company that scores 53.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
On valuation, WCN sits about 84% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is WCN a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores WCN 53.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Waste Connections, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does WCN score 53.2 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 63.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 38.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. WCN grades middle-of-pack across the graded signals. Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so WCN is measured against Waste Management peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is WCN overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $152.83, WCN sits about 84% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 36.9x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in WCN?
Trailing P/E 37x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.