Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

WCN analysis

Waste Connections, Inc.Waste Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

WCN
Waste Connections, Inc. · Waste Management
FCF$1.2bC+
Rev+5.7%C+
D/E1.22C
P/E40.0xC+
PEG2.71C
57.1Score
$164.50$41.5B
1Y Target$200.76Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$293.93Compound horizon
10Y Target$436.03Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTM
C+
FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+5.7%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.7% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.22
C
D/E 1.22 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E40.0x
C+
P/E 40.0 — above the Industrials median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.71
C
PEG 2.71 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.1
Quality0.64
Growth0.76
Value0.39
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value95% aboveest. fair value ~$84
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~24% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability19% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC8.8% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Waste Management · market cap $41.5b. 14% off the 52-week high of $191.00. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $200.76 (implying +22% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 116% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trailing P/E 40x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $200.76 (25-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $293.93 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $436.03 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

WCN vs the Top Picks average

PillarWCNBook avgDiff
Quality0.640.84-0.20
Growth0.760.92-0.16
Value0.390.75-0.36

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.2 over 34 daily scores
From 60.3 (Jun 22) → 57.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,974
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$123.38
25% below $164.50
$ at risk if stopped
$493.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN): score, valuation & FAQ

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) is a Waste Management company that scores 57.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, WCN sits about 95% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is WCN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WCN 57.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Waste Connections, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WCN score 57.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). WCN grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is WCN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $164.50, WCN sits about 95% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 40.0x× P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in WCN?

Trailing P/E 40x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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