Bull Rankings model

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) stock analysis

Waste Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. · Waste Management
39.2Score
$83.78Oct 9 close$5.3B
1Y Target$108.40Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$189.59Compound horizon
10Y Target$338.84Long-dated conviction
FCF$105mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $105m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+18.0%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +18.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.92
C+
D/E 0.92 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S*2.7x
B
P/S 2.7x — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG3.29
D
PEG 3.29 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 39.2
Quality33.5
Growth87.4
Value20.6
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
22% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value108% aboveest. fair value ~$40
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~18% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Waste Management · market cap $5.3b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $107.96 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $108.40 (implying +29% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income, mostly because of depreciation and amortization ($325m) — non-cash charges that hold down reported earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Net margin 0.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 0% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $108.40 (10-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $189.59 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $338.84 — return distribution heavily skewed.

CWST vs the Top Picks average

PillarCWSTBook avgDiff
Quality3383-50
Growth8789-2
Value2176-55

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+4.5 over 81 daily scores
From 34.7 (Jun 22) → 39.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CWST at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD39.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY33.5GROWTH87.4VALUE20.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~30% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$33.5$52.7FAIR-VALUE RANGE$83.8PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$40.2 · price $83.8 is 108% above it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$83.8LOW $74.1HIGH $108Trading at the 29th percentile of its 52-week range ($74.1–$108).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100CWST 39.2Ranks above 34% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.1%
90-day change-4.9%
Forward EPS estimate$1.44

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CWST to earn is drifting lower (-4.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,927
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$62.84
25% below $83.78
$ at risk if stopped
$481.74
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST): score, valuation & FAQ

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) is a Waste Management company that scores 39.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CWST sits about 108% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CWST a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CWST 39.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CWST score 39.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 87.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 20.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CWST earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CWST is measured against Waste Management peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CWST overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $83.78, CWST sits about 108% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CWST?

Net margin 0.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 0% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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