1Y Target$86.75Near-term target
5Y Target$111.29Compound horizon
10Y Target$289.59Long-dated conviction
FCF$505mTTM · 03/26C+FCF $505m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+14.3%TTM YoYB+Revenue +14.3% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E——D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/S1.1xA-P/S 1.1x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG0.13APEG 0.13 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $2.3b. Down 71% from 52-week high of $190.93 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.13 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $86.75 (implying +57% upside).
Moat
Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -2.0%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 71% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $86.75 (20-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $111.29 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $289.59 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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