Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

WDC analysis

Western Digital CorporationComputer Hardware. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

WDC
Western Digital Corporation · Computer Hardware
FCF$3.5bB
Rev+35.7%A
D/E0.13B+
P/E17.1xA-
PEG0.88B+
70.6Score
$459.44$165.6B
1Y Target$664.92Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$839.44Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,077Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.5bTTM
B
FCF $3.5b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+35.7%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +35.7% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.13
B+
D/E 0.13 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E17.1x
A-
P/E 17.1 — cheaper than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.88
B+
PEG 0.88 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 70.6
Quality81.2
Growth75.8
Value57.3
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
43% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value251% aboveest. fair value ~$131
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~52% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability46% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC35.5% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Western Digital’s data‑center drive platform is set to dominate the exploding hyperscale storage market, powered by a 32% YoY revenue growth, a razor‑thin 55.3% profit margin, and a massive $2.9B free‑cash‑flow run‑rate. Our Bull Rankings model awards WDC a Quality‑growth score of 73.4, with Quality (83) as the strongest pillar, underscoring its pricing power and high ROE of 67.3% from leadership in enterprise HDDs. The thesis hinges on the continuation of this compounding revenue engine, which the market already prices in at a 55% FCF growth assumption – a level far above the realistic 32% pace, leaving upside if growth moderates but margins stay high.
Moat
WDC’s moat stems from its entrenched position supplying internal and data‑center HDDs to the world’s largest cloud providers, a segment where switching costs are steep due to firmware integration, warranty commitments, and massive volume contracts. Its 67.3% ROE reflects pricing power derived from category leadership in high‑capacity enterprise drives, a capability rivals cannot replicate quickly without massive capex and supply‑chain lock‑ins.
Risk
The bear case focuses on the accelerating shift to all‑flash and emerging storage technologies, threatening HDD demand; the stock trades at a forward P/E of 18, which is elevated given the sector’s beta of 2.22 and the risk of margin compression as flash pricing falls. A sustained drop in revenue growth below 20% or a margin dip below 50% would validate the risk, likely pushing the price back toward its 52‑week low of $73.14.
Horizon
1-3 yr $664.92 (24-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $839.44 at ~13% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $1,077 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

WDC vs the Top Picks average

PillarWDCBook avgDiff
Quality0.810.84-0.03
Growth0.760.84-0.08
Value0.570.78-0.21

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+7.5 over 45 daily scores
From 63.1 (Jun 22) → 70.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.2%
90-day change+4.0%
Forward EPS estimate$31.75

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect WDC to earn is drifting higher (+4.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,838
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$344.58
25% below $459.44
$ at risk if stopped
$459.44
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Western Digital Corporation (WDC): score, valuation & FAQ

Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is a Computer Hardware company that scores 70.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). On valuation, WDC sits about 251% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 52% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is WDC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WDC 70.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Western Digital Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WDC score 70.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). WDC earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is WDC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $459.44, WDC sits about 251% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 52% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.1x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in WDC?

The bear case focuses on the accelerating shift to all‑flash and emerging storage technologies, threatening HDD demand; the stock trades at a forward P/E of 18, which is elevated given the sector’s beta of 2.22 and the risk of margin compression as flash pricing falls. A sustained drop in revenue growth below 20% or a margin dip below 50% would validate the risk, likely pushing the price back toward its 52‑week low of $73.14.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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