Toast, Inc. — Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
TOST
Toast, Inc. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$654mC+
Rev+24.1%A-
D/E0.01A
P/E42.4xB
PEG0.23A
80.2Score
$28.85$16.7B
1Y Target$34.04Analyst consensus · 26 analysts
5Y Target$49.84Compound horizon
10Y Target$73.93Long-dated conviction
FCF$654mTTMC+
FCF $654m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+24.1%TTM YoYA-
Revenue +24.1% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.01A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
P/E42.4xB
P/E 42.4 — near the Technology median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.23A
PEG 0.23 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 80.2
Quality0.68
Growth1.00
Value0.76
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
42% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value75% aboveest. fair value ~$16
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability55% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC14.3% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Toast’s integrated restaurant platform—anchored by its flagship Toast POS and the AI‑driven Toast IQ—is delivering hyper‑growth, evidenced by 24.1% YoY revenue expansion, a robust $654 m of free cash flow and an eye‑watering PEG ratio of 0.23 that signals deep upside at current multiples; the compounding engine is the network of SaaS tools that lock merchants into a single stack, and that stickiness will keep growth accelerating.
Moat
The moat lies in the end‑to‑end stack: POS, kitchen display, payroll, inventory and payments are all bundled, creating switching costs that rival the cost of re‑training staff and re‑integrating disparate vendors; this lock‑in fuels a ROE of 20.7%, driven by pricing power from being the de‑facto operating system for thousands of U.S. restaurants.
Risk
The bear case hinges on valuation and market volatility—a forward P/E of 42.6x and a beta of 1.74 make the stock vulnerable to a risk‑off sell‑off, while margin pressure (profit margin only 6.4%) could intensify if competition erodes pricing power; a sustained dip below the 52‑week low of $22.26 would confirm the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $34.04 (26-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $49.84 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $73.93 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · TOST
$
%
%
Shares to buy
69
Position size
$1,991
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$21.64
25% below $28.85
$ at risk if stopped
$497.66
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Toast, Inc. (TOST): score, valuation & FAQ
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 80.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a strong reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (A-). On valuation, TOST sits about 75% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich).
Is TOST a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TOST 80.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a strong reading. That is driven by D/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Toast, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TOST score 80.2 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TOST earns its highest marks on D/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is TOST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $28.85, TOST sits about 75% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich). It trades at a 42.4x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in TOST?
The bear case hinges on valuation and market volatility—a forward P/E of 42.6x and a beta of 1.74 make the stock vulnerable to a risk‑off sell‑off, while margin pressure (profit margin only 6.4%) could intensify if competition erodes pricing power; a sustained dip below the 52‑week low of $22.26 would confirm the downside.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.