Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TOST analysis

Toast, Inc.Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

TOST
Toast, Inc. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$576mC+
Rev+23.0%A-
D/E
P/E46.4xC+
PEG0.23A
76.3Score
$36.64$21.2B
1Y Target$38.62Analyst consensus · 26 analysts
5Y Target$56.54Compound horizon
10Y Target$83.87Long-dated conviction
FCF$576mTTM
C+
FCF $576m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+23.0%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +23.0% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E46.4x
C+
P/E 46.4 — above the Technology median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.23
A
PEG 0.23 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 76.3
Quality67.7
Growth91.1
Value72.1
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value150% aboveest. fair value ~$15
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~41% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability57% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.6% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $20.6b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $45.64 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +23%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.23 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $38.12 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 119% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Beta 1.73 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 45x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $38.62 (26-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $56.54 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $83.87 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TOST vs the Top Picks average

PillarTOSTBook avgDiff
Quality0.680.84-0.16
Growth0.910.84+0.07
Value0.720.78-0.06

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-4.2 over 47 daily scores
From 80.5 (Jun 22) → 76.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.4%
90-day change+1.9%
Forward EPS estimate$1.73

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TOST to earn is drifting higher (+1.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
54
Position size
$1,979
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$27.48
25% below $36.64
$ at risk if stopped
$494.64
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Toast, Inc. (TOST): score, valuation & FAQ

Toast, Inc. (TOST) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 76.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and Rev (A-). On valuation, TOST sits about 150% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 41% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TOST a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TOST 76.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Toast, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TOST score 76.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TOST earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and Rev (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TOST overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $36.64, TOST sits about 150% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 41% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 46.4x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TOST?

Beta 1.73 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 45x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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