1Y Target$264.74Near-term target
5Y Target$326.58Compound horizon
10Y Target$480.05Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.4bTTM · 03/26BFCF $3.4b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+14.5%TTM YoYB+Revenue +14.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.44B+D/E 0.44 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E20.7xBP/E 20.7 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG1.05B+PEG 1.05 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Why now
Electronic Components · market cap $59.2b. 20% off the 52-week high of $252.56. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $264.74 (implying +31% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 117% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $264.74 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $326.58 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $480.05 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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